The world is currently experiencing major shifts—from changing global alliances and economic struggles to rising conflict and emerging technologies like cyber warfare. Countries everywhere are being forced to adapt quickly.
For Somalia, these global changes come at a critical time. After years of conflict and rebuilding, the country now stands at a crossroads.
The big question is: will Somalia rise with the times? What does the country, long associated with fragility, conflict, and humanitarian crises, need to rise to the occasion?
To understand Somalia’s present challenges, we first need to look at its past.
The history of Somalia’s political development can be divided into three distinct stages: the civilian era, the military era, and the current period of transition and rebuilding. Somalia’s journey through these stages reflects its resilience in the face of immense challenges. While the country has struggled with political instability, military rule, and civil war, recent developments show signs of progress.
The civilian era laid the foundation for national unity; the military era was marked by authoritarian rule and conflict; and the current era is focused on reconstruction and state-building, with an emphasis on stability, governance, and development.
Despite ongoing challenges, Somalia’s recovery and stabilization are central to the hopes of its people and the international community.
The basis of the third Somalia Republic is rooted in federalism, the 4.5 clan dynamics, an evolving electoral model, and a constitution—elements designed to promote inclusivity, power-sharing, and balanced governance in a country marked by deep divisions.
However, this framework is under strain due to a lack of political consensus. Disagreements over power distribution, the electoral process, and the implementation of constitutional provisions threaten fragile state-building efforts. Without broader political unity, these issues could derail progress.
Somalia is one of the world’s poorest countries, facing numerous challenges that hinder its journey toward stability and development. With a population severely affected by insecurity, political instability, and the growing threat of climate change, the country remains heavily dependent on foreign aid.
Despite this, the international community has consistently supported Somalia through humanitarian, development, and stabilization assistance. Key milestones—such as the transition to a recognized federal government, the lifting of the arms embargo, and debt relief—have paved the way for Somalia’s participation in regional economic blocs like the East African Community.
However, expectations have evolved. The international community now anticipates that Somalia will build its own economic future, focusing on revenue harmonization, monetary and fiscal policy, and developing robust financial institutions. There is a growing push for Somalia to move from aid dependency to investment, trade, and self-sufficiency.
These expectations have yet to be fully met, largely due to the absence of transformative leadership capable of steering Somalia toward these goals.
In a global landscape marked by power diffusion, fragmented norms, and rising isolationism, Somalia faces an increasingly complex environment. Geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, and threats such as cyber warfare and terrorism add to the volatility.
Economically, the world is navigating what is being termed an “economic war,” with sanctions, trade barriers, and the reorientation of financial alliances. These shifts require leadership that can navigate complex challenges and strategically position Somalia on the global stage.
Throughout history, transformative leaders have built strong institutions, guided nations through turbulence, and led them to prosperity. These leaders—George Washington, Winston Churchill, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Nelson Mandela, Lee Kuan Yew, Otto von Bismarck, and Mahatma Gandhi—are remembered for their ability to unite their nations, build lasting institutions, and overcome obstacles.
Somalia needs that kind of leadership now: someone who can bring people together, implement meaningful reforms, and represent the country globally.
This leadership must focus on building a resilient, self-reliant Somalia that thrives independently of foreign aid while effectively engaging international partners. Only through such leadership can Somalia overcome its challenges and realize its potential as a sovereign, prosperous nation.
The political trajectory of Somalia currently appears uncertain, marked by developments that threaten national stability.
In light of these concerns, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) must take proactive steps to foster national unity. A comprehensive reconciliation conference bringing together all political stakeholders—including opposition parties, federal member states, civil society, and Somali elites—is crucial. This dialogue should focus on constitutional reform, the electoral model, and a united counter-terrorism strategy.
Consensus-building, reconciliation, and constructive dialogue must guide national leadership.
In the fight against terrorism, Jubaland State plays a critical role. As a region with a history of terrorist activity and strategic significance, it requires attention. President Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe), with his background in security and institution-building, brings valuable experience. The FGS must actively involve him in shaping and leading the national counter-terrorism strategy.
Bringing together political leaders, regional states, civil society, and elders for national dialogue is essential. Prioritizing issues like the constitution, elections, and terrorism can safeguard Somalia’s political process and ensure lasting peace and stability.
The need for collaboration, dialogue, and shared responsibility has never been more urgent. These efforts are vital to maintaining Somalia’s sovereignty and preventing the country from descending into chaos.
Abdirahman Abdi Ahmed
Minister of Planning, Investment and International Cooperation- Jubaland State of Somalia
