Ankara / Mogadishu — A new assessment by Turkey’s National Intelligence Academy warns that Somalia is entering its most fragile period in a decade, citing militant violence, political fragmentation, weak institutions, climate shocks, and mounting geopolitical pressures. The report, titled “A Multidimensional Partnership Model,” also examines the strategic partnership between Turkey and Somalia, highlighting both achievements and vulnerabilities.
Al-Shabaab remains the foremost threat, controlling large rural areas and conducting frequent attacks, while a smaller ISIS faction in Puntland adds additional instability. The Somali National Army continues to rely heavily on external support to maintain security.
Somalia’s incomplete federal structure further fuels political discord. Recurring disputes between Mogadishu and federal member states, especially Puntland and Jubaland, over elections and revenue-sharing have stalled national decision-making and complicated Turkish development projects that depend on coordination between central and regional authorities.
Weak state institutions and donor dependence limit the country’s capacity to deliver basic services. While debt relief through IMF and World Bank programs has provided some respite, procurement delays and sluggish project execution continue to undermine development progress. Future climate pressures are expected to exacerbate instability, potentially triggering large-scale internal displacement.
The report notes Turkey’s deepening engagement in Somalia since President Erdoğan’s 2011 visit, spanning defense, infrastructure, healthcare, and humanitarian aid. Camp TURKSOM in Mogadishu has trained over 15,000 Somali troops, while Turkish companies manage key infrastructure including the airport and port. Turkey has invested over $1 billion in aid and development projects, and the two nations have exchanged land for embassy construction.
Despite these gains, the intelligence assessment warns that progress remains vulnerable to the five core risks shaping Somalia’s trajectory. The report also highlights scrutiny over Turkish operations, including allegations that some aid disproportionately benefits companies connected to the Turkish government and reports that UN investigators found Turkish-supplied armed drones in Somalia in 2022 without approval.
Somalia’s future stability, the report concludes, hinges on reducing militant threats, strengthening institutions, managing political disputes, resisting external pressures, and consolidating economic foundations. Without improvements in these areas, the decade-long strategic partnership with Turkey may remain exposed to recurrent crises.
