The al-Qaida-linked militant group Al-Shabab continues to pose the most serious threat to peace and stability in Somalia and the wider region, particularly neighboring Kenya, according to a new report by United Nations experts released on Wednesday.
Despite sustained military operations by Somali forces and their international partners, the UN panel said Al-Shabab’s operational strength remains largely intact. The group has retained its ability to carry out complex and coordinated attacks across Somalia, including in the capital, Mogadishu. Notably, the militants attempted to assassinate Somalia’s president on March 18, underscoring their continued reach and intent.
The experts highlighted that the threat from Al-Shabab extends beyond direct attacks. The group maintains a sophisticated system of extortion, forcibly recruits fighters, and runs an effective propaganda network that helps sustain its influence and funding. These mechanisms, the report said, allow the group to endure despite years of counterterrorism pressure.
On Tuesday, the UN Security Council unanimously voted to extend the mandate of the African Union’s support and stabilization mission in Somalia until December 31, 2026. The force currently consists of 11,826 uniformed personnel, including 680 police officers, and plays a key role in supporting Somali security efforts.
The report also warned of the growing danger Al-Shabab poses to Kenya. According to the panel, the group carried out an average of six attacks per month in Kenya this year, primarily in Mandera and Lamu counties near the Somali border. These attacks range from improvised explosive device (IED) strikes targeting security forces to kidnappings, infrastructure sabotage, home raids, and livestock theft.
UN experts reiterated that Al-Shabab’s long-term objective remains the overthrow of Somalia’s federal government, the expulsion of foreign forces, and the creation of a so-called “Greater Somalia” uniting ethnic Somalis across East Africa under strict Islamist rule.
The panel also examined the presence of the Islamic State group in Somalia. While significantly smaller than Al-Shabab, ISIL-Somalia was assessed as an emerging threat. By the end of 2024, the group was estimated to have more than 1,000 fighters, at least 60 percent of whom were foreign recruits, mainly from East Africa.
Although limited in resources compared to Al-Shabab, the experts warned that the Islamic State’s continued expansion represents a growing risk to Somalia’s security and regional stability.
The report paints a sobering picture: while international and local efforts have constrained militant groups, Somalia continues to face a resilient and evolving extremist threat that shows little sign of disappearing in the near future.
