Last week, Al-Shabaab launched a series of coordinated attacks on several areas in the Middle Shabelle region, under Hirshabelle State. The terrorist group faced strong resistance from local security forces, particularly in Eel Ali Ahmed, where they suffered heavy losses. Several key operatives were killed, combat vehicles were destroyed, and weapons were seized from the militants.
However, the group managed to seize control of Eel Baraf without encountering any resistance. In another battle at Eel Fool Dhere, a confrontation erupted between Al-Shabaab and the Hirshabelle Dervish forces, resulting in casualties on both sides. Among the injured was the Hirshabelle Police Commander, Colonel Hassan Diisow Hassan, who was later evacuated to Mogadishu for medical treatment.
Why Has Al-Shabaab Regained Ground in Middle Shabelle?
Investigations by Akbaar Media reveal several factors contributing to Al-Shabaab’s resurgence in Middle Shabelle. The group took advantage of the power vacuum left after being expelled from multiple areas across Somalia, using the time to regroup and train new fighters.
Our findings indicate that Al-Shabaab played a significant role in fueling inter-clan conflicts, particularly between the Hawadle and Abgaal clans, with the aim of weakening their unity. This allowed the group to re-establish control over areas they had previously lost.
Al-Shabaab was also reportedly behind the recent killing of six Hawadle clan soldiers in Eel Baraf, intending to incite clan-based violence. The attackers later surrendered to Al-Shabaab camps, providing clear evidence of the group’s involvement.
Additionally, Al-Shabaab exploited internal divisions within the Abgaal clan—specifically among the Agoonyar and Abdalla Aroone sub-clans—further facilitating their advances in the region.
Why Has Eel Baraf Not Been Recaptured?
One of the key obstacles to reclaiming Eel Baraf is the growing political tension between former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and current President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
President Hassan Sheikh has fully equipped and supported local Hawadle clan militias, as he does not perceive them as a political threat. However, he has been reluctant to extend similar support to the Abgal clan’s Maawiisley militia, particularly the Agoonyar sub-clan, fearing that they might align with Badbaado Qaran 2, an opposition faction linked to Sheikh Sharif.
According to reliable sources, President Hassan Sheikh believes the Agoonyar sub-clan is firmly aligned with Sheikh Sharif. As a result, he has deliberately weakened their military capacity, which has delayed any effort to retake Eel Baraf due to the lack of prepared local forces.
Furthermore, the president has systematically diminished the influence of the Harti Abgaal clan’s security forces, engaging in conflicts with their key commanders—such as Ali Hubeey and Saney Abdulle—due to their perceived loyalty to Sheikh Sharif.
In response to the security crisis Akbaar Media can confirm that President Hassan Sheikh has sought assistance from influential businessman Liban Shuluq, asking him to mobilize and deploy local fighters to support the government’s counter-offensive.
On Sunday, President Hassan Sheikh met with Libaan Shuluq and Aidiid, both from the Agoonyar sub-clan, to organize local defense units loyal to the government. According to sources, the operation to reclaim Eel Baraf and Ali Fool Dhere officially commenced today, Monday.
